Overview

• Weather Prediction Center forecasters report a mature MCS over northwest and north‑central Arkansas and far southern Missouri with additional 2–3 inches of rain possible on saturated ground and peak rates near 1.5 inches per hour.
• Central Kansas faces scattered flash‑flood potential as repeating cells produce 1.25–1.5 inch per hour rates, localized 2–3 inch totals, and widely scattered amounts over 3 inches where guidance is near 1.5 inches per hour and 2.5 inches in three hours.
• Storm Prediction Center guidance highlights eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and far northeast Texas for locally damaging wind gusts of 55–70 mph and marginal hail up to 1.25 inches, with a 20% probability of watch issuance.
• A northeasterly‑moving cluster over southern into eastern Ohio may yield isolated wind damage with most‑probable gusts up to 60 mph, and the SPC places watch probability at 5%.
• Forecasters note mesoscale forcing and low‑level moisture transport are supporting the ongoing hazards for a few hours, with convective intensity expected to ease as moisture flux and convergence weaken.