Overview
- Fitch is scheduled to publish its review after markets close on 12 September, with France currently rated AA- on a negative outlook.
- Analysts flag a real risk of a downgrade to A+, which would move France into the single‑A category.
- Pressure reflects public debt of about 114% of GDP in Q1 2025 and the collapse of the Bayrou government with its aborted €44 billion savings plan for 2026.
- A lower grade could raise perceived risk, prompting some pension funds and large insurers to reduce purchases of French debt and complicating sovereign financing.
- Looking ahead, Moody’s reviews France on 24 October and S&P on 28 November; Friday also brings Gabriel Attal’s Ukraine visit for the YES Forum, a Grenoble verdict in the Échirolles stabbing case, the opening of the Fête de l’Humanité, and Air France’s early rollout of free Starlink Wi‑Fi on select aircraft.