Overview

• Fitch does not expect significant pressure on sector credit ratings and describes the system as solid despite recent shocks.
• FinCEN identified CIBanco and Intercam for money‑laundering concerns tied to cartels, and those banks’ deposits fell 18% by end‑June versus May as clients pulled funds.
• Fitch reports that contagion effects on the broader system have diminished, with large banks continuing to grow deposits.
• Second‑quarter results were strong on sustained loan growth and controlled credit costs, though profitability is starting to feel the effects of slower loan expansion and gradually higher credit expenses.
• Fitch forecasts a moderate performance slowdown through late 2025 due to tariff uncertainty and weaker U.S. conditions, even as low funding costs support margins for large banks and asset quality shows slight deterioration led by consumer credit.