Overview
- The agency’s baseline projects GDP growth of 3.2% in 2025, easing to 2.8% in 2026 under continued prudent fiscal policy.
- Fitch expects the public-sector deficit to narrow from 3.6% of GDP in 2024 to about 2.5% in 2025 and roughly 2.2% in 2026, noting another likely miss of the 2025 fiscal target.
- External buffers remain strong with international reserves near $87 billion and an estimated 10.4 months of current external payments coverage in 2025.
- A rising share of public debt in foreign currency is a key vulnerability, projected to reach about 45.7% in 2026 after local markets weakened with repeated pension withdrawals.
- Fitch views the executive as vulnerable under interim President José Jerí after Congress removed Dina Boluarte, and flags risks from crime, social unrest, climate shocks, regulatory unpredictability and Petroperú’s contingent liabilities.