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2h ago

Fitch Lifts Italy’s Rating to BBB+ With Stable Outlook

The agency points to tighter fiscal policy, political steadiness and reform momentum as it projects a gradual narrowing of the deficit despite debt still expected to stay very high.

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Overview

  • Fitch upgraded Italy’s sovereign rating from BBB to BBB+ and kept the outlook stable, completing a run of more favorable actions by major agencies in 2025.
  • Fitch forecasts a deficit of about 3.1% of GDP in 2025, GDP growth of 0.6% next year and government debt rising toward roughly 137.6% in 2026, while noting a solid banking system.
  • Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti welcomed the move as validation of the government’s fiscal path, with Giorgetti later saying it may be possible to bring the 2025 deficit below 3%, a goal he framed as an opportunity.
  • Coverage highlights potential benefits from lower funding costs for the state, major banks and state-controlled companies, with households seen gaining from cheaper borrowing and stronger demand for BTPs.
  • The decision contrasts with Fitch’s recent downgrade of France and shifts attention to the next review dates: S&P on October 10, DBRS on October 17 and Moody’s on November 21.