Particle.news
Download on the App Store
8 ARTICLES
·
last wk.

Fitch Cuts Global Growth Forecasts as US-China Trade War Escalates

Global growth is now projected to fall below 2% in 2025, with record tariffs and policy uncertainty driving significant downgrades for the US, China, and India.

People walk on the esplanade of La Defense in the financial and business district of La Defense, near Paris, France, January 27, 2025. REUTERS/Sarah Meyssonnier/File Photo
Image
Victoria Harbour and the Central Business District of Hong Kong, China, April 14, 2025. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu/File Photo
Image

Overview

  • Fitch Ratings has reduced its global growth forecast for 2025 by 0.4 percentage points to below 2%, marking the weakest growth rate since 2009, excluding the pandemic.
  • US and China growth projections were both lowered by 0.5 percentage points, while India's GDP growth estimates were revised to 6.2% for 2024-25 and 6.4% for 2025-26.
  • The US average effective tariff rate has surged to 23%, the highest level since 1909, with bilateral tariffs on China exceeding 100% following retaliatory measures.
  • Fitch highlighted the severe impact of escalating trade tensions and policy uncertainty on investment, household wealth, and global trade flows.
  • Growth in the eurozone is expected to remain below 1%, reflecting broader regional economic stagnation linked to geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges.