Overview

• Fitch announced the downgrade after markets closed on September 12, moving France from AA- to A+ with a stable outlook.
• The agency said persistent political fragmentation weakens the state’s capacity to deliver large‑scale fiscal consolidation and makes a sub‑3% deficit by 2029 unlikely.
• France’s public debt stands around €3.3–€3.4 trillion, roughly 114% of GDP, with the 2025 deficit projected near 5.4% of GDP.
• Analysts expect limited immediate market disruption as risks were largely priced in, though mandate‑constrained funds could sell French bonds, adding upward pressure on borrowing costs.
• The decision follows the fall of François Bayrou’s government and Sébastien Lecornu’s appointment as prime minister, with investors now watching Moody’s on October 24 and S&P on November 28.