Overview

• The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a 0.3% contraction in Q1 GDP, contributing to recent declines in U.S. equity markets.
• Historical data from 1962-2012 supported the 'Sell in May' adage, with May-July periods averaging -0.3% returns.
• More recent trends challenge the adage, with May delivering positive returns in 9 of the last 10 years, averaging 0.9%.
• Post-election years, like 2025, have historically favored bulls, with 18 of 24 such years posting average gains of 3.8%.
• Analysts note seasonal weakness is more pronounced in bear markets, while bull markets can still see summer gains, though with increased volatility.