First Geomagnetic Storm of 2026 Likely Jan. 2–3 After M7.1 Solar Flare
Scientists say a partially Earth-directed coronal mass ejection from the Dec. 31 eruption could trigger a moderate G2 event.
Overview
- The Laboratory of Solar Astronomy at IKI RAN confirmed an M7.1 flare that peaked at 16:51 MSK on December 31.
- Forecasters expect the associated CME to deliver the first noticeable geomagnetic storm of 2026 on the night of January 2–3.
- The storm is projected to reach up to G2 strength, with roughly a 30% chance of stronger G3 or higher activity.
- Geomagnetic conditions stayed low on New Year's night despite ongoing influence from a coronal hole.
- Eight C-class flares were recorded since midnight on December 31, following three M-class events on December 29 including an M4.2, and potential impacts include wider auroral visibility and minor disruptions to power, radio and navigation.