Overview
- The finance ministry, in its October Monthly Economic Review released Thursday, estimated India’s GDP grew 7.35% in the July–September quarter and credited domestic demand, higher investment and structural reforms for the rise.
- The ministry pointed to a set of high-frequency indicators supporting activity, including rising industrial output, stronger manufacturing orders, higher energy use, port traffic and GST collections.
- Officials warned that rising US 10-year Treasury yields, higher crude prices, supply-chain strains and tensions in West Asia could dent capital inflows and put pressure on the rupee.
- The report says policymakers will focus on keeping economic activity on track while safeguarding price stability in the second half of FY27 as food inflation, energy costs and an uncertain kharif crop pose upside risks to prices.
- The MER’s projection comes ahead of the official Q2 GDP release on November 30 and sits alongside recent forecasts from the RBI and IMF that place full-year growth near 7.0–7.1%, with potential capital-flow volatility the key risk to watch next.