Overview
- The 240‑page assessment models more than 2,000 paths to 2065 and sets an official baseline of deficits from 2033 with national debt rising toward about 148% of GNI* and a deficit near 8% without policy change.
- Age‑related costs in healthcare, long‑term care and pensions are projected to consume roughly 46% of day‑to‑day public spending by mid‑century.
- Ireland’s old‑age dependency ratio is forecast to climb to about 55% by 2065 from 23% in 2022, pressuring growth and public finances.
- Boom‑time corporation tax receipts are expected to decline markedly between 2030 and 2040, underscoring the risk from concentrated, volatile revenues.
- Labour supply is set to weaken from 116 to 98 workers per 100 not working by 2065, with the report describing continued inward migration as vital; climate and debt‑service costs also rise, with extreme climate spending scenarios reaching 3–4% of national outlays despite a future sovereign wealth fund cushion.