Overview

• The YouGov poll projects Labor securing 84 seats, well above the 76 needed for a majority, with the Coalition reduced to 47 seats, its lowest since 1946.
• Labor leads the Coalition 52.9% to 47.1% on a two-party preferred basis, with both major parties' primary votes falling below 35%.
• Independents are expected to retain their seats and may capture key Coalition electorates, including Cowper, Calare, and Bradfield.
• Senior Coalition MPs, including Michael Sukkar, David Coleman, and Dan Tehan, are predicted to lose their seats, signaling potential leadership shifts.
• The Greens face challenges holding lower house seats, with outcomes in Brisbane and Griffith hinging on complex three-way preference flows.