Overview

• A new Fidelity Digital Assets report projects roughly 8.3 million BTC, about 42% of supply, could be effectively off the market by 2032 if recent trends persist.
• The analysis counts two cohorts as illiquid: coins last moved seven or more years ago and public companies holding at least 1,000 BTC, which together already exceed six million BTC by Q2 2025.
• Public companies held over 830,000 BTC as of June 30, with about 97% of corporate balances at firms holding 1,000 BTC or more and most of that concentrated among roughly 30 companies.
• On-chain signals point to shifting behavior in the near term, including roughly $12.7 billion in whale selling over the past 30 days and the movement of 80,000 decade-old coins in July.
• Fidelity stresses the projection is conditional, noting that ETF inflows and macro expectations have supported prices recently but that outcomes hinge on whether large holders keep accumulating or decide to sell.