Overview

• Official ONS figures show the total fertility rate fell to 1.41 in 2024, the third straight annual drop and the lowest since records began.
• ONS cohort indicators suggest only about 65% of women are now projected to become mothers if current patterns persist, down from 71% in 2020.
• Local disparities are stark, with York at 1.04 and the City of London at 0.32 in 2024, alongside other very low rates in parts of London and university cities.
• Early effects include school closures and mergers due to falling pupil numbers, with the education sector projected to lose £1bn in funding by 2030.
• The debate over responses is intensifying, spanning support for family formation and migration options, while some groups argue lower population brings environmental benefits.