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Ferguson Beats Q4 Estimates, Sets 2025 Margin Target as Analysts Raise Price Targets

Robust cash returns bolster confidence in a mid-single-digit growth outlook.

Overview

  • Quarter sales rose 6.9% to $8.5 billion with adjusted EPS of $3.48 topping forecasts, while GAAP EPS climbed 59.2% to $3.55 as gross margin expanded 70 basis points to 31.7%.
  • Management guided to mid-single-digit revenue growth for calendar 2025 with an adjusted operating margin of 9.2%–9.6%, plus expected interest expense of $180–$200 million, capex of $300–$350 million, and a 26% adjusted tax rate.
  • Ferguson will shift its fiscal year-end to December 31, creating a five-month transition period ending December 31, 2025 to better align reporting with seasonal demand.
  • Full-year sales reached $30.8 billion with $1.9 billion in operating cash flow, enabling $948 million of share repurchases and total dividends of $3.32 per share, up 5% year over year.
  • Shares jumped as much as 5%–8% after the release, and analysts lifted targets including Wells Fargo to $275, Baird to $262, and RBC to $243 following the results and outlook.