Overview
- Speaking at Yale, Christopher Waller said recent payroll gains are likely overstated and that true job growth is near zero.
- He cited November’s 64,000 jobs added and a 4.6% unemployment rate as evidence of a very soft labor market.
- Waller said the Fed can keep cutting at a moderate pace and suggested as much as an additional one percentage point of easing.
- He warned lower mortgage rates may not revive sales because homebuyers are focused on job security rather than borrowing costs.
- The policy split persisted as Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic argued against more cuts, even after last week’s quarter-point reduction to 3.5%–3.75% and with key data delayed by the government shutdown.