Overview

• Policymakers convene October 28–29, with markets widely expecting a 25-basis-point move to a 3.75%–4.00% target range.
• Minutes from the September 16–17 meeting, which produced a 25-basis-point cut, are due at 2 p.m. ET on October 8 and could refine expectations for the next step.
• The shutdown that began October 1 has postponed major releases such as the September jobs report and likely the September CPI, reducing the usual inputs before the meeting.
• Officials are publicly split on pace and size: Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee urges caution, while Governor Stephen Miran favored a half-point cut at the last meeting.
• A Supreme Court order keeps Governor Lisa Cook on the job pending January arguments, preserving the current voting lineup as the next decision approaches.