Overview
- Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran reiterated that a 50 basis point cut in December is appropriate, saying 25 basis points should be the minimum absent new data that changes his outlook.
- Miran dissented at the September and October meetings in favor of larger moves, while other policymakers such as Alberto Musalem urged caution given inflation near 3% and elevated asset valuations.
- Chair Jerome Powell has said another reduction next month is not guaranteed, reflecting a divided committee over the timing and size of further easing.
- CME FedWatch shows roughly a 62%–67% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the December 9–10 meeting, with odds drifting lower in recent days.
- Officials are operating with constrained official data during a government shutdown, and Miran argues policy must be forward-looking given 12–18 month lags and emerging housing and private-credit stresses.