Overview

• The Federal Open Market Committee is set to hold the federal funds rate at 4.25 percent to 4.50 percent at its July 29–30 meeting.
• The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows only a 2.1 percent chance of a rate cut this week, with most economists forecasting the first easing in September 2025.
• Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman have publicly indicated they may dissent from a hold vote if tariff-induced price pressures prove temporary.
• President Trump has intensified public demands for immediate rate cuts and threatened to remove Chair Jerome Powell, putting central bank independence under strain.
• Ongoing tariffs have kept inflation elevated and a still-strong job market has yet to show signs of cooling, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance.