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Bond Yields Surge Past 5% as Oil Tops $100 and Risk Assets Slide

Rising yields driven by strong U.S. activity and renewed Iran Strait risk have pushed up the odds of an October Fed rate hike and tightened financial conditions.

Overview

  • S&P Global’s flash PMI showed U.S. business activity accelerating to a composite reading of about 58.4 on Wednesday, the strongest in over five years and a signal of rising input costs.
  • The U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield climbed to roughly 5.11–5.145%, its highest level since 2007, in a rapid bond selloff that traders say reflects hotter growth and inflation risks.
  • Brent crude jumped back above $100 a barrel after reports of a vessel struck in the Strait of Hormuz and renewed diplomatic friction with Iran, adding to inflation worries that lift yields.
  • Market pricing and Fed comments raised the chance of an October rate increase into the mid‑60s to mid‑70s percent range, and stocks pulled back with the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow all posting losses.
  • Crypto markets weakened as higher yields removed a key support for non‑yielding assets: Bitcoin slid to about $83k–$84k and CoinGlass reported roughly $135.8 million of crypto positions liquidated in an hour, highlighting tighter liquidity and the risk to leveraged traders.