Overview
- Fedea’s November outlook, built from July outturns and updated advance transfers, places its forecast between the Government’s 0.1% deficit and AIReF’s 0.4%.
- Official data show the autonomous communities posted a combined balance of €-285 million through July 2025, equal to -0.02% of GDP.
- The projection factors in a €2.211 billion positive revenue differential tied mainly to stronger ITP and AJD receipts linked to an exceptional housing cycle, plus IGIC gains.
- Non‑financial spending grew 4.8% through July, with a €3.258 billion adverse impact that reflects higher personnel costs, including a 0.5% pay increase applied retroactively, while excluding €755 million from Valencia’s DANA.
- Only four regions are projected to finish with surpluses—Navarra (0.7%), Andalucía (0.5%), Asturias (0.3%) and Cantabria (0.3%)—with the largest deficits in Comunidad Valenciana (-1.4%) and Murcia (-1.1%), as Fedea urges fiscal consolidation ahead of new EU rules.