Overview
- The S&P 500 trades at about 22.2 times forward earnings, a level described as expensive by recent market analyses.
- Jerome Powell said in September that equities were "fairly highly valued," and October FOMC minutes flagged stretched valuations and the risk of a disorderly decline.
- The benchmark S&P 500 rose 16% in 2025, marking a third straight year of double-digit gains.
- Since 1957, the index has averaged roughly 1% in midterm election years, with an average 7% decline when a new president occupies the White House.
- Carson Investment Research reports that the six months after midterm elections have historically delivered about a 14% gain for the S&P 500.