Overview

• Bloomberg’s framing of a potential focus on “moderate long-term interest rates” has bond traders rethinking duration risk and policy scenarios.
• Arthur Hayes reiterates a $1 million Bitcoin forecast contingent on the Federal Reserve adopting yield curve control, arguing capped long rates would suppress real yields and boost scarce assets.
• Stephen Miran was narrowly confirmed and sworn in to the Federal Reserve Board, with his prior comments about the statutory goal for long-term rates cited in the renewed policy debate.
• The statutory basis under 12 U.S.C. § 225a includes “moderate long-term interest rates,” and YCC is defined by the St. Louis Fed as capping specific maturities, with precedents in Japan and a brief Australian episode.
• Market and social reactions were swift, with industry figures endorsing the framing and Bitcoin trading around $116,000 as discussions of tools from QE to direct curve control resurfaced in policy chatter.