Overview
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he supports a 25-basis-point cut on Dec. 9–10, citing a labor market near stall speed, softer growth, and inflation near target once tariff effects are excluded.
- Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said policy should proceed slowly as it approaches neutral, noting lingering inflation risks and uncertainty over how much official data will be available before the meeting.
- Recent remarks from Boston’s Susan Collins, Atlanta’s Raphael Bostic, Kansas City’s Jeffrey Schmid, and St. Louis’s Alberto Musalem emphasize caution due to inflation pressures, including tariff-driven goods prices.
- The 43-day government shutdown delayed key reports such as the September jobs figures due Thursday, pushing officials to lean on private indicators like ADP payrolls, unemployment claims, and sentiment surveys.
- After quarter-point cuts in September and October to 3.75%–4.00% with rare opposing dissents, traders have reduced the probability of a December move to roughly 45%, and several Wall Street firms now project a slower easing path extending into 2026.