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Fed Split Deepens on Next Move as Williams Leaves Door Open to Near-Term Cut

Markets now lean toward a December pause with key data still unavailable.

Overview

  • Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that further easing risks prolonging above‑target inflation and fueling risk‑taking, opposed October’s cut, and said current rates are only barely restrictive.
  • Fed Governor Lisa Cook flagged vulnerabilities from private credit, hedge fund Treasury trades, and AI‑driven strategies, saying the likelihood of outsized asset price declines has increased.
  • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said inflation has been steady or worse and voiced unease with a third straight cut in December, adding he would consider dissenting if he strongly disagrees.
  • Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said each reduction raises the bar for another, noted slightly greater concern about employment, and highlighted growth’s reliance on higher earners; she will not vote in December.
  • New York Fed President John Williams said policy remains modestly restrictive and there is room to adjust rates toward neutral in the near term, even as futures pricing has shifted toward no change at the Dec. 9–10 meeting.