Overview
- Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he will support a 25 basis point cut on Dec. 9–10, citing a labor market near stall speed and inflation near target once tariff effects are stripped out.
- Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said policy should proceed slowly as rates approach neutral, noting uncertainty about how much official data will be available before the meeting.
- Market pricing now sees the December outcome as roughly a coin toss, with CME FedWatch recently near a 44% chance of a cut.
- Distinct camps have formed, with several Trump-appointed governors pressing for further easing while multiple regional presidents warn that persistent inflation and tariff effects argue for patience.
- The 43‑day shutdown delayed key reports, with the Fed minutes due Wednesday and the September employment report scheduled for Thursday as officials weigh private indicators against the limited catch-up data.