Overview
- Futures put roughly 85%–88% odds on a 25‑basis‑point reduction to a 3.50%–3.75% target range, and a hold would be a major surprise.
- Officials are visibly split, with analysts expecting at least two dissents and many dot‑plot entries likely to signal opposition to a December cut.
- The committee must decide with an incomplete data set after the shutdown delayed October jobs and CPI, while September PCE still showed inflation above 2%.
- Labor signals have softened, including an unemployment rate near 4.4%, leading markets to expect a cautious or “hawkish” cut and only low odds of a January move.
- Powell’s press conference and the updated 2026 projections are set to guide the path into next year, with investors also watching balance‑sheet signals and political uncertainty around a possible Kevin Hassett nomination and a pending case involving Governor Lisa Cook.