Overview
- Futures put the probability of a quarter-point cut near 90%, which would take the target range to 3.50%–3.75% at Wednesday’s decision.
- Analysts expect one of the most divided FOMC votes in years, with multiple dissents and a likely “hawkish cut” message that raises the bar for further easing.
- A 43-day government shutdown delayed key inflation and jobs reports, leaving officials to lean on stale or partial data and making the Summary of Economic Projections pivotal.
- Longer-term Treasury yields have stayed elevated even as the Fed eased this year, prompting investors to price a shallow 2026 cutting path and brace for volatility.
- Political pressure is in focus as President Trump pushes for lower rates, Kevin Hassett is discussed as a potential Powell successor, and Governor Stephen Miran has argued for larger cuts.