Overview
- Officials are expected to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%–4.00% target range, the second reduction since September.
- Futures markets largely anticipate another cut in December, making the 2 p.m. ET policy statement and 2:30 p.m. ET press conference pivotal for guidance.
- With BLS reports delayed, including September payrolls and potentially October inflation, the Fed has turned to weekly jobless claims, regional surveys, and new ADP readings.
- Inflation remains above target and has some policymakers urging caution, even as Powell has highlighted growing downside risks to employment.
- Analysts say the Fed could also signal an end to balance‑sheet runoff as bank reserves tighten, with holdings down to roughly $6.6 trillion.