Overview

• The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to keep its target rate at 4.25%–4.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting on July 29–30
• Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman plan to dissent in favor of a 25-basis-point cut, marking the first double dissent since 1993
• President Trump’s public criticisms and firing threats have intensified scrutiny of Fed independence, though legal safeguards protect Chair Jerome Powell
• Record U.S. tariffs have driven consumer inflation to an annualized 3.5% in June, prompting policymakers to weigh the durability of price pressures
• Markets continue to price in about two rate cuts by year-end, shifting expectations for the first reduction to the Fed’s September meeting