Overview
- Futures and surveys imply roughly an 85–88% chance of a 25‑basis‑point move to 3.50%–3.75%, with a hold seen as a major surprise.
- Analysts expect visible pushback on easing, with forecasts of at least two dissents and talk of the largest split since 2019.
- Inflation remains above the 2% goal, with delayed September PCE at 2.8% year over year, even as labor indicators soften.
- New York Fed chief John Williams’ November 21 remarks nudged major brokerages, including Nomura, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley, to call for a December cut.
- Powell’s news conference and updated projections will guide views on 2026 policy, as leadership uncertainty grows with President Trump signaling Kevin Hassett as a potential successor.