Overview
- Markets largely expect a 25 basis-point reduction to a 3.50%–3.75% range today, with odds near 90%, a 2 p.m. ET decision and Powell’s press conference at 2:30.
- Public rifts among officials have grown, raising the prospect of several dissents and the most visible split on a rate move in years.
- Updated projections are expected to signal fewer cuts next year, with many analysts looking for roughly two reductions in 2026.
- Key employment and inflation reports for October and November were delayed until after this meeting, forcing guidance to be set with incomplete data.
- Long-term Treasury yields have risen despite the expected cut, while President Trump’s hunt for Jerome Powell’s successor—with Kevin Hassett viewed as the favorite—adds political pressure.