Overview
- Futures pricing points to a high likelihood of a 25‑basis‑point reduction on Dec. 10, which would mark a third straight cut this year.
- Multiple dissents are anticipated from both hawkish and dovish officials, highlighting an unusually divided Federal Open Market Committee.
- Key November jobs and recent inflation releases were postponed by the government shutdown, leaving policymakers to lean on partial and private indicators.
- Analysts widely expect a 'hawkish cut,' with markets scrutinizing the statement, Powell’s press conference, and the SEP for clues on how many cuts could come in 2026.
- Global markets traded nervously ahead of the decision, with the dollar firmer and stocks mixed, and crypto analysts cautioning that digital assets often weaken around FOMC announcements.