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20m ago

Fed Set for Contentious Call as Markets Price In December Rate Cut

Traders expect a quarter‑point move following weeks of limited data caused by the shutdown.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to preside over the US central bank's last monetary policy meeting of 2025 amid a divided board
People walk past screens displaying the Hang Seng stock index and stock prices outside the Exchange Square in Hong Kong, China January 23, 2024. REUTERS/Joyce Zhou/File Photo
The Federal Reserve building in Washington, D.C., U.S., September 16, 2025. REUTERS/Aaron Schwartz/File Photo
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Overview

  • Futures put the probability of a 25‑basis‑point cut in the mid‑to‑high‑80s percent range, according to CME FedWatch and Reuters polling.
  • Analysts expect visible dissent on the Federal Open Market Committee, with forecasts of at least two votes against easing and many officials likely to signal opposition in the dot plot.
  • Chair Jerome Powell will unveil updated economic projections and hold a press conference that investors will parse for guidance on the policy path into 2026.
  • The government shutdown delayed or canceled key releases, leaving officials without October jobs and CPI and working with delayed inflation data showing core PCE at 2.8% in September.
  • Global markets are cautious as the decision looms, with the RBA expected to hold rates, the SNB due Thursday, and the BoE, ECB, and BoJ to follow later in December.