Overview

• Minutes of the June FOMC meeting show that all Fed policymakers agree new import duties will push up consumer prices.
• Officials are divided on whether tariff-driven price spikes will be a one-off event or have lasting effects on inflation expectations.
• The committee voted unanimously to hold the federal funds rate at 4.25–4.50 percent but split sharply over when or whether to begin cutting rates.
• A 90-day tariff pause assumed in staff projections has expired with a second wave of duties on copper, pharmaceuticals and other goods triggering revisited forecasts.
• President Trump’s public criticism and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s “tariff derangement syndrome” remark underscore political pressure on the Fed’s monetary independence.