Overview

• Reuters’ survey of 107 economists shows 105 expect a 25‑basis‑point cut on Sept. 17, with most anticipating at least one more reduction this year.
• Futures imply roughly two to three quarter‑point cuts by year‑end and only single‑digit odds of a 50‑bp move next week, with about 71 bps priced by December.
• Latest data show CPI rose 2.9% year on year in August with core at 3.1%, PPI fell 0.1% month on month, jobless claims jumped to 263,000, and unemployment stands at 4.3%.
• BLS benchmark revisions indicate about 911,000 fewer jobs over the year through March, intensifying focus on labor weakness as the Fed weighs tariff‑related inflation risks flagged by the IMF.
• Equities rallied to records in the U.S. and across Asia and bond yields eased, reflecting confidence in a September cut and expectations for further guidance in next week’s policy projections.