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12m ago

Fed Rift Deepens Ahead of December Meeting as Miran Presses for At Least a Quarter-Point Cut

A data blackout alongside 3% inflation leaves the outlook for further easing uncertain.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic prepares for a speech at the National Association of Business Economics' annual policy meeting in Washington, U.S. March 21, 2022. REUTERS/ Ann Saphir
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins stands behind the Jackson Lake Lodge in Jackson Hole, where the Kansas City Fed holds its annual economic symposium, in Wyoming, U.S., August 24, 2023. REUTERS/Ann Saphir
The Federal Reserve building in Washington, D.C., U.S., September 16, 2025. REUTERS/Aaron Schwartz/File Photo/File Photo
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem takes part in a press conference, after cutting key interest rate, in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada September 17, 2025. REUTERS/Blair Gable/File Photo

Overview

  • Fed Governor Stephen Miran reiterated his preference for a 50 basis point move in December but said 25 bps should be the minimum, marking a public softening of his stance.
  • Following two quarter-point cuts, the policy rate stands at 3.75%–4.00% and Chair Jerome Powell has cautioned that another reduction is not guaranteed.
  • A Reuters poll shows 80% of economists expect a 25 bps cut on Dec. 10, while CME FedWatch places market odds near the mid‑60% range and trending lower.
  • Policy views are diverging, with St. Louis Fed’s Alberto Musalem urging caution given inflation closer to 3% and San Francisco Fed’s Mary Daly emphasizing an open mind as wage growth cools.
  • The longest government shutdown has created a data fog that pushed the Fed toward private readings like ADP and Homebase, and a Senate-approved funding bill could restore official data before the meeting.