Overview
- Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson says she is comfortable holding rates at the Jan. 27–28 meeting and warns the labor market could break quickly, noting 95% of last year’s private-sector job growth came from healthcare.
- Chicago’s Austan Goolsbee, San Francisco’s Mary Daly, and Kansas City’s Jeff Schmid indicate the Fed is positioned to wait for more inflation and employment data.
- Recent data show unemployment at 4.4% in December with consumer inflation near 3%, still above the Fed’s 2% goal.
- Market pricing reflects low odds of a January cut, with CME FedWatch near 5% and Polymarket around 4% for a 25-basis-point move.
- The policy rate stands at 3.50%–3.75% after three cuts in 2025, and Paulson describes the current stance as slightly above neutral with modest easing later this year possible if the data warrant it.