Overview

• The Federal Reserve on Sept. 17 reduced the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00–4.25% and projected two additional cuts in 2025 and one in 2026.
• Average 30-year mortgage rates hovered near 6.26% last week, the lowest in about a year yet still far above pre-pandemic levels.
• Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that only large policy shifts would materially affect housing, noting mortgage pricing is driven largely by bond markets.
• Falling rates are opening refinancing opportunities for homeowners who locked loans near 7% to 8%, though savings depend on rate drops, closing costs and loan terms.
• Any buyer revival could collide with scarce inventory, with Utah analysts projecting a 153,000-home shortfall by 2030, and advisers urging purchases based on budget readiness rather than rate timing.