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Fed Raises Policy Rate to 3.9% as Structural Forces Keep Long-Term Yields High

Higher Treasury and mortgage yields are persisting because inflation is outpacing wages, plus big AI investments and large federal deficits are raising demand for capital.

Overview

  • The Federal Reserve raised its policy reference rate to 3.9% this week, a step taken to slow inflation by making short-term borrowing more costly.
  • Economists say long-term interest rates are being driven by persistent inflation that has outpaced wage growth for months, not only by Fed moves.
  • Large technology firms are drawing down cash and borrowing to build AI data centers, which increases competition for financing and pushes up long-term yields.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5% earlier this year and the average 30-year mortgage rate climbed to about 6.95%, squeezing home affordability for many buyers.
  • Officials and analysts warn that continued uneven growth, supply constraints and large federal budget deficits could keep borrowing costs higher for the foreseeable future, affecting households and investment decisions.