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Fed Poised to Keep Interest Rates Unchanged at June Policy Meeting

Policymakers are weighing the inflationary threats posed by Trump’s tariffs alongside a recent oil-price surge after Israel’s strike on Iran.

Overview

  • The Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain its benchmark rate at 4.25–4.50% when it meets on June 17–18, marking a pause that began in December.
  • May data showed inflation easing toward 2% and employers added 139,000 jobs, underpinning officials’ reluctance to adjust rates.
  • President Trump has demanded an immediate one-percentage-point rate cut and has publicly criticized Chair Jerome Powell with personal insults.
  • Global oil prices surged after Israel struck Iran’s nuclear and military sites, heightening the risk of renewed inflation pressures.
  • The European Central Bank has cut its benchmark rate eight times this year to 2.0%, widening the policy divide with the US.