Overview

• Markets using the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool show a roughly 97% chance that the FOMC will keep rates unchanged at its July 29–30 meeting.
• Chair Jerome Powell has maintained a “wait-and-see” approach after holding the federal funds rate at 4.25–4.50% since early 2025.
• Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman have signaled they could dissent if cooling inflation data warrants a July cut.
• President Trump has publicly criticized the Fed’s pace, labeling Chair Powell a “numbskull” and threatening action over the Fed’s renovation costs.
• Fed officials are closely monitoring tariff-driven price effects and emerging labor market fissures for guidance on the next policy shift.