Overview
- Policymakers are widely expected to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, with CME FedWatch showing roughly 97% odds after three quarter-point cuts in 2025.
- Powell’s Wednesday 2:30 p.m. ET press conference is seen as the key catalyst for signals on whether the pause carries a hawkish stance or retains an easing bias into mid‑year.
- The Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation into Powell’s renovation testimony and issued subpoenas he called a political pretext, a topic likely to surface at the briefing.
- Supreme Court arguments on the effort to remove Governor Lisa Cook suggested she likely remains in her role for now, reinforcing concerns about central bank independence.
- President Trump could announce a nominee to succeed Powell as soon as this week, with Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, Kevin Warsh and Rick Rieder reported as contenders, while a potential dissent from Governor Stephen Miran is being watched.