Overview
- Futures and prediction markets assign roughly 95%–99% odds that the FOMC leaves the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% after three quarter-point cuts in late 2025.
- Powell’s first public appearance since disclosing a DOJ subpoena over his 2025 renovation testimony comes as questions about Fed independence intensify.
- The Supreme Court heard arguments on the administration’s effort to remove Governor Lisa Cook, with justices signaling skepticism about granting that authority.
- A dissent from Trump appointee Stephen Miran favoring a 50-basis-point cut is expected, highlighting internal divisions as inflation hovers near 2.7%–2.8% and unemployment holds around 4.4%.
- The White House’s $200 billion MBS purchase plan and limits on institutional home buying are flagged as potentially inflationary for housing, while some outlets report New York Fed ‘rate checks’ tied to possible dollar–yen intervention.