Overview
- A quarter-point reduction would lower the target range to 3.5%–3.75%, the lowest in nearly three years.
- Officials are split between protecting a weakening labor market and restraining inflation near 2.8% core PCE, with potential dissents expected.
- A shutdown-driven blackout delayed October and November jobs and inflation releases, limiting inputs for today’s decision.
- Futures put the odds of a 25-basis-point cut near 88%–90%, and several banks — including JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Nomura and Standard Chartered — shifted to expect a cut.
- The dot plot and Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference will guide views on 2026, with a leadership change adding uncertainty to the rate path.