Overview

• Futures imply a roughly 96%–100% chance of a 25 basis point reduction, which would take the federal funds target to about 4.00%–4.25%.
• Stocks hover near records, gold has notched fresh highs, and the dollar sits near a four‑year low against the euro as traders position for a dovish tilt.
• President Trump’s public push for easing and fresh governance shifts are in focus, with a court blocking the attempt to remove Governor Lisa Cook and Stephen Miran sworn in as a Fed governor and voting.
• Incoming data are mixed, with a cooling labor market and August CPI at 2.9% year over year alongside a stronger‑than‑expected retail sales gain.
• Strategists warn of a market pullback if the move is seen as politically driven or if guidance proves less dovish, making dissents and the dot plot pivotal for the perceived path of additional cuts.