Overview

• Interest-rate futures put roughly 96%–100% odds on a 25-basis-point cut on Wednesday, with only small odds on a larger move and expectations for additional easing later this year.
• The rate decision arrives at 2 p.m. ET with Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m., alongside updated economic projections and a new dot plot.
• Stephen Miran was narrowly confirmed and sworn in as a Fed governor and will vote at this meeting, while an appeals court ruling keeps Governor Lisa Cook in place pending further litigation the White House plans to appeal.
• Fresh data show August retail sales rose 0.6% month over month and industrial production ticked up 0.1%, underscoring resilient consumer spending against a cooling labor market and lingering inflation pressures.
• U.S. stocks eased from record highs, the dollar weakened, and gold set fresh records near $3,700 an ounce as traders position for the decision and the Fed’s guidance on the path of cuts.