Overview
- Futures imply roughly 87%–90% odds of a quarter-point move to 3.50%–3.75% at the Dec. 10 decision, with major indexes and yields trading cautiously into the announcement.
- An unusually split FOMC is expected to record multiple dissents, with some policymakers preferring no move and Governor Stephen Miran advocating a larger, 50 bp cut.
- Many analysts expect a “hawkish cut” that lowers rates but raises the bar for additional easing, with a pause in January seen as a distinct possibility.
- The SEP’s dot plot will be scrutinized for 2026 guidance, as market pricing has shifted toward two cuts next year and about 75–77 basis points of total easing by end-2026.
- Core PCE inflation near 2.8% year over year, a cooling labor market, and limited fresh data after a shutdown shape the debate, as questions over White House influence and Powell’s succession add uncertainty.