Overview
- The FOMC is widely expected to trim the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%–4.00% target range, marking a second consecutive reduction.
- Chair Jerome Powell is expected to strike a cautious tone, noting a softer labor market and the unusual uncertainty created by missing government data.
- Futures markets put near‑certain odds on another move in December, though policymakers remain split over how quickly to ease with inflation still above target.
- Officials are likely to discuss stopping balance‑sheet runoff soon, with signals possible that quantitative tightening is nearing its conclusion as reserves tighten.
- With key reports delayed, the Fed is leaning on private indicators such as ADP and state jobless claims after the latest CPI showed 3.0% year‑over‑year inflation in September.