Overview
- The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% at 2 p.m. ET, with Chair Jerome Powell speaking at 2:30 p.m.
- Officials are likely to keep guidance guarded, with a December reduction possible but uncertain given divisions over inflation risks and the weakening job market.
- Most official economic reports have been delayed by the government shutdown, leaving the Fed without the September jobs data and other key indicators; the CPI was released late at 3.0% year over year.
- Markets have priced high odds of another cut this year, though some policymakers favor a larger move or no cut, raising the prospect of dissents on the decision and statement.
- Analysts say the committee could also discuss halting the balance‑sheet runoff as money‑market liquidity tightens, even as inflation pressures linked to tariffs remain a concern.